CNA Explains: What could more voters mean for number of MPs, electoral boundaries in Singapore’s next GE?

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s latest voter rolls were released at the end of July, indicating the number of people eligible to cast their ballots at the next General Election (GE).
This figure has increased to 2,715,187, due to factors including new citizens and Singaporeans turning 21 years old.
The next electoral contest must be held by November 2025. It will be the first under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and his fourth-generation or 4G leadership team. 
There are currently 14 single member constituencies (SMCs), and 17 group representation constituencies (GRC) with four or five members each.
Comparing the latest voter rolls with figures published in a report by the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) ahead of GE 2020, Potong Pasir SMC has recorded the largest percentage increase in voter numbers (68.6).
Hong Kah North SMC is next at 65.5 per cent.
In both cases, the rise has been driven by thousands of new Housing Board flats at Bidadari and Tengah estates respectively.
Voter numbers rose by at least 10 per cent in seven constituencies altogether.
The biggest drop, meanwhile, was in Radin Mas SMC (9.1 per cent). Voter numbers dipped in 10 constituencies in total.
The EBRC has set the range of voters per MP at 20,000 to 38,000.
For GE2020, the number of elected MPs rose from 89 to 93, on the back of voter numbers going up – from 2,460,484 to 2,594,740, according to the EBRC’s report ahead of the polls.
Based on the latest figure of 2,715,187, the average number of voters per MP for a 93-strong parliament remains well within the prescribed range, at about 29,196. 
The National University of Singapore’s Associate Professor Daniel Goh, a former Workers’ Party (WP) Non-Constituency MP who has left politics, said that any potential corresponding rise in the number of MPs would be “maybe just a few at most”, with the country’s parliament already “quite sizeable” for a small electorate.
Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS) associate faculty Kasthuri Prameswaren pointed out that having a larger ratio of voters to MPs could affect lawmakers’ ability to discharge their duties.
If each MP has to represent more residents and address more concerns, constituents might end up feeling like their issues are not being dealt with effectively, she said.
According to Singapore’s Elections Department (ELD), the EBRC reviews and recommends changes to electoral boundaries, taking into account population shifts and housing developments leading to increases or decreases in the number of voters across electoral divisions.
“In performing its role, the Committee does not examine the results of past elections,” the ELD said on its website. “It also does not take into account the profile of voters who may be affected by the new boundaries.”
Boundaries are “generally reviewed just before” each GE and findings are released in a report. After that, candidates and parties will prepare for an imminent election.
The Committee was last convened in August 2019, ahead of a GE in July 2020. 
As of Aug 7, it has not been convened.
Hong Kah North SMC’s voter population of 38,929 makes it currently the only constituency to breach the elector limit of 38,000.
Independent observer Felix Tan, who has written about Singapore’s political landscape, said it was possible for a portion of the SMC to be carved out and joined with a neighbouring GRC.
“Otherwise, it might be subsumed into a neighbouring GRC and then that GRC might be redrawn again forming two small GRCs,” he said. 
In 2020, what was then known as Sengkang West SMC had 47,891 voters, far above the upper limit. It was eventually absorbed into a new Sengkang GRC.
Today, Ang Mo Kio GRC and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC are also nearing the 190,000 upper limit (for their five-MP wards), with 188,820 and 180,319 voters respectively.
Both were formerly six-member GRCs before being downsized in 2020.
Experts said they could shrink further, with new SMCs and smaller GRCs carved out.
This already happened to Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC for the last election, when a new Punggol West SMC and four-member Sengkang GRC was created. 
The average number of MPs per GRC has dropped – from five in 2011 to 4.75 in 2015 to 4.65 in 2020 – while the number of SMCs has gone up (from 12 to 13 to 14 over the same period).
Among the single seats, Yuhua is the smallest with 20,362 voters – just above the lower limit of 20,000.
It is the only SMC helmed by a full minister – Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu.
Yuhua is also bounded by Jurong GRC, which currently does not have an “anchor” minister after former Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam retired from politics last year and won a presidential election.
An anchor minister is the de facto GRC team leader, whose presence serves to reassure residents and to guide new candidates, said Ms Kasthuri from SUSS.
There “might be a high chance” Yuhua gets subsumed into a new or existing GRC, said Dr Tan.
But not all electoral boundaries are redrawn at every round.
In 2020, 12 constituencies were untouched, Institute of Policy Studies research fellow Teo Kay Key noted. Seven of them were left intact in 2015 as well.
These include the opposition WP-held Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC.
“It is probably an unwritten rule that unless the opposition wards fall, there are certainly no other strong reasons to (redraw boundaries there),” said Dr Tan, adding that changing the boundaries at these wards could be viewed as “politically motivated”.
Minister-in-charge of the Public Service Chan Chun Sing said in parliament earlier this month that the EBRC functions independently, without direction or control from the government.
Mr Chan, who is also Education Minister, added that the Committee prioritises the interests of voters and not any political party, including the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).
The senior civil servants forming the EBRC also hold no party allegiances, and recommend boundary changes without fear or favour, he said.
Ms Kasthuri pointed out that the voting concerns of older Singaporeans might be shaped by their increasing digital literacy.
Analysts also said to watch for new patterns emerging in newer estates such as the aforementioned Tengah and Bidadari.
For one, the interests of a younger electorate lie beyond the usual “bread and butter” issues, and encompass the likes of climate change and inequality, said Dr Tan.
“Those contesting in these constituencies might need to delve deeper into such residents’ concerns instead,” he said.
This youth factor came to the fore in post-GE2020 analyses of how a WP team of fresh-faced candidates defeated a ruling PAP lineup helmed by a minister, in the battle for Sengkang GRC.
A WP MP for Sengkang – Raeesah Khan – has since quit, while the PAP has overhauled all but one name in its slate. 
In another signal of its bid to reclaim opposition-held wards, the PAP also recently announced two new names in Aljunied GRC, where another WP MP – Leon Perera – has also stepped down.
Apart from the two WP departures, three PAP MPs have also resigned for various reasons. Together with President Tharman’s retirement, it leaves six empty seats in Singapore’s current parliament – the largest numerical void since independence.
Against this backdrop, as well as growing anticipation of a GE, a clutch of new faces have already been spotted at party walkabouts publicised on social media.
These younger “up-and-comers” will look to showcase their abilities to voters at the upcoming election – and to lay the ground for the subsequent one, said Ms Kasthuri.